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In this paper, we study the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in estimated panel vector autoregression models for 92 countries. The large cross‐section of countries allows us to shed light on the heterogeneity of the responses of stock markets and nitrogen dioxide emissions as high‐frequency measures of economic activity. We quantify the effect of the number of infections and four dimensions of policy measures: (1) containment and closure, (2) movement restrictions, (3) economic support, and (4) adjustments of health systems. Our main findings show that a surprise increase in the number of infections triggers a drop in our two measures of economic activity. Propping up economic support measures, in contrast, raises stock returns and emissions and, thus, contributes to the economic recovery. We also document vast differences in the responses across subsets of countries and between the first and the second wave of infections.
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Many centralized matching markets are preceded by interviews between participants, including the residency matches between doctors and hospitals. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, interviews in the National Resident Matching Program were switched to a virtual format, which resulted in a dramatic and asymmetric decrease in the cost of accepting interview invitations. We study the impact of an increase in the number of doctors' interviews on their final matches. We show analytically that if doctors can accept more interviews, but hospitals do not increase the number of interviews they offer, then no doctor who would have matched in the setting with more limited interviews is better off and many doctors are potentially harmed. This adverse effect is the result of what we call interview hoarding. We characterize optimal mitigation strategies for special cases and use simulations to extend these insights to more general settings.
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Economic stratification lies at the heart of persistent inequities, which have been considerably amplified under COVID-19. To tackle these persistent inequities, a social economics approach and common goods focused policy for at-risk groups are required. Using this approach, this article highlights various past macroeconomic and health policy decisions that have created the conditions for the social and spatial distribution of COVID-19 infections, deaths, and other deleterious outcomes. Additionally, the linkages between health and socioeconomic status are explored, shedding light on the current and likely gaps present given the Covid19 global pandemic. One cannot look at the COVID-19 crisis in a vacuum, but rather how the crisis reflects deeply rooted institutional, structural, and systemic social stratification. This article contributes to the existing literature by analysing it through the lens of occupational prestige. The recognition of social economics and the growing stratification of Americans is necessary to enact healthier policies for all, but especially marginalized communities.
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Los tiempos de COVID-19 han generado aislamiento social en las personas y —también— se ha incrementado la compra online. El presente artículo basado en el estudio en 371 consumidores peruanos busca evaluar el efecto actual de la calidad del sitio web, la satisfacción del cliente y la confianza del cliente sobre la recompra en línea. Fue un estudio transversal que utilizó una encuesta en línea. Veintidós preguntas evaluaron la intención de recompra de los consumidores. Se utilizó un análisis técnico SEM-PLS. Se encontró que la calidad del sitio web tuvo una influencia positiva en la satisfacción del cliente e influyó positivamente en la confianza del cliente;asimismo, la satisfacción del cliente tuvo una influencia positiva en la confianza del cliente y en la intención de recompra en línea;y la confianza del cliente tuvo una influencia positiva en la confianza en línea y la intención de recompra. El modelo explicó el 20,6% de la intención de recompra online. Los resultados de la prueba de arranque se utilizaron para evaluar si los coeficientes de trayectoria son significativos. Los resultados pueden ayudar a las empresas a desarrollar planes estratégicos para aumentar las compras en línea. La novedad se basa en el uso de la técnica de modelado de ecuaciones estructurales de mínimos cuadrados parciales (PLS-SEM)Alternate : COVID-19 has led to social isolation and a subsequent increase in online shopping has been observed. The present study is based on theory of reasoned action and focused on 371 Peruvian consumers, it seeks to evaluate the current effect of the website quality, customer satisfaction, and customer trust in online repurchases. The current study is cross-sectional and uses an online survey with 22 questions that evaluated consumers repurchase intentions. A technical SEM-PLS analysis was used. It was found that website quality had a positive influence on customer satisfaction, website quality positively influenced customer trust, customer satisfaction had a positive influence on customer trust, customer satisfaction had a positive influence on online repurchase intention, and customer trust had a positive influence on online repurchase intention. The model explained 20.6% of online repurchase intention behavior. Outcomes of the bootstrapping test were used to evaluate if path coefficients are significant. The outcomes can help companies to develop strategic plans to increase online purchasing. The novelty is based on using the partial least squares structural equation modeling (SEM-PLS) technique
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PurposeThe Russian invasion of Ukraine generated unprecedented panic in the European financial system. As expected, the European Union (EU) felt most of the negative effects of the war due to geographical proximity to Ukraine and energy dependence on Russia. This study aims to investigate the influence of Brent crude oil (BCO), Dutch Title Transfer Facility Natural Gas, and CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) on Deutscher Aktien Index (DAX), Austrian Traded Index (ATX) and Milano Indice di Borsa (FTSEMIB). The German, Austrian and Italian equity indexes were chosen due to the heavy dependence of these countries on Russian gas and oil.Design/methodology/approachThe data cover the period from November 24, 2021, to June 24, 2022, including five months of the Russia–Ukraine war. To generate the intended results, vector autoregressive, structural vector autoregressive, vector error correction model, Johansen test and Granger causality test were used.FindingsThe results highlight that natural gas and the VIX carried negative effects on DAX, ATX and FTSEMIB. The BCO was expected to have influenced three selected equity indexes, while the results suggest that it was priced only in ATX.Originality/valueThis research provides modest evidence for the policymakers on the systemic risk that Russian gas has for the EU equity markets. From a managerial perspective, changes in oil and gas prices are a permanently integral part of portfolio risk analysis.
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PurposeThis study aims to investigate the interconnectedness across the risk appetite of distinct investor types in Borsa Istanbul. This study also examines the causal impact of global implied volatility indices on the risk appetite of these investor groups.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a novel time-varying frequency connectedness framework of Chatziantoniou et al. and a new time-varying Granger causality test with a recursive evolving procedure by Shi et al. over June 2008 and July 2022.FindingsThe results show a high level of interconnectedness across the risk appetite of different investor types. The sizable spillovers to domestic types of investors either occur from professional or foreign investors, indicating the long-term dominant effect of foreign and more qualified investors on the domestic investors in Borsa Istanbul. The authors provide significant evidence of causality from the global implied volatility to the Borsa Istanbul risk appetite indices, which are getting stronger after the COVID-19 outbreak.Originality/valueUnlike the previous studies, the authors analyze the risk appetite sub-indices of various types of investors to reveal behavioral distinctions and interconnectedness across them. The authors use a novel econometric framework to assess investors' risk appetite in different investment horizons in a time-varying system. Together with volatility index (VIX), the authors also use volatilities of oil (OVX), gold (GVZ) and currency (EVZ), considering the information transmission not only from stock markets but also energy, metals and currency markets. The present data set covers significant financial crises, socioeconomic events and the COVID-19 outbreak.
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In this paper, we offer an explanation for cyclical reforms to pension systems, based on the experience of countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the last three decades. We conclude that in making the transition to funded pension design, governments not only transfer longevity and fiscal risks to the individual but also absorb risks transferred from the public, with each market actor transferring undiversifiable risks to the other. This pathway of hidden risks, which has not previously been discussed in the literature, stems from a public expectation that citizens will enjoy risk premiums and adequate old-age benefits, an expectation that evolves into political pressure. The outcomes of this risk path are realized in financial transfers, such as means-tested social security and minimum pension guarantees. Consequently, funded pension designs converge naturally into a new landscape paradigm of risk-sharing, with intergenerational and intragenerational components. Financial crises such as the one accompanying the recent COVID-19 pandemic foster the convergence process.
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The current Covid-19 pandemic has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths globally. As a consequence, a myriad of concomitant economic and social activities has been frozen. Many countries have had to enforce border blockages, travel restrictions and quarantine. The pandemic has changed consumers' attitudes significantly and driven individuals and households to the state of panic buying. This paper examines the household stockpiling in Vietnam in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect the data across the country. The empirical results show that householders' education and household sizes are positively associated with the propensity that a household stocks up. However, the likelihood of a family stockpiling is lowered when members receive information about the pandemic from formal sources. There are also notable differences among the essential items being stockpiled by different households. Specifically, households living in urban areas or near (super)markets are more inclined to stock up food than other goods. By contrast, households with members working as doctors tend to spend a large portion of their stockpiling budget on medication.
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PurposeThe purpose of this research is to analyze the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) long memory and conditional volatility.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical approach includes ARFIMA-HYGARCH and ARFIMA-FIGARCH, both models under Student‘s t-distribution, during the period (ETH: November 9, 2017 to November 25, 2021 and BTC: September 17, 2014 to November 25, 2021).FindingsFindings suggest that ARFIMA-HYGARCH is the best model to analyze BTC volatility, and ARFIMA-FIGARCH is the best approach to model ETH volatility. Empirical evidence also confirms the existence of long memory on returns and on BTC volatility parameters. Results evidence that the models proposed are not as suitable for modeling ETH volatility as they are for the BTC.Originality/valueFindings allow to confirm the fractal market hypothesis in BTC market. The data confirm that, despite the impact of the Covid-19 crisis, the dynamics of BTC returns, and volatility maintained their patterns, i.e. the way in which they evolve, in relation to the prepandemic era, did not change, but it is rather reaffirmed. Yet, ETH conditional volatility was more affected, as it is apparently higher during Covid-19. The originality of the research lies in the focus of the analysis, the proposed methodology and the variables and periods of study.
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The systemic inadequacies of models of health systems propagated by the advocates of global health policies (GHPs) have fragmented health service systems, particularly in middle- and lower-income countries. GHPs are underpinned by economic interests and the need for control by the global elite, irrespective of people's health needs. The COVID-19 pandemic challenged the advocates of GHPs, leading to calls for a movement for "decolonisation” of global health. Much of this narrative on the "decolonisation” of GHPs critiques its northern knowledge base, and the power derived from it at individual, institutional and national levels. This, it argues, has led to an unequal exchange of knowledge, making it impossible to end decades of oppressive hegemony and to prevent inappropriate decision-making on GHPs. Despite these legitimate concerns, little in the literature on the decolonisation of GHPs extends beyond epistemological critiques. This article offers a radically different perspective. It is based on an understanding of the role of transnational capital in extracting wealth from the economies of low- and middle-income countries resulting in influencing and shaping public health policy and practice, including interactions between the environment and health. It mobilises historical evidence of distorted priorities underpinning GHPs and the damaging consequences for health services throughout the world.
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PurposeThis study aims to explain how delinquency shocks in one type of debt contaminate the others. That is, the authors aim to shed light on the time pattern of delinquencies in different debt types.Design/methodology/approachThis study analyzes the interdependencies between mortgage, credit card and auto loans delinquency rates in the USA from 2003 to 2019, using a panel VAR-X, the panel Granger causality tests and the Geweke linear dependence measures. The authors also compute the impulse response functions of a shock to one kind of debt on the others and decompose the variance of the forecast errors.FindingsThe authors find a statistically significant bidirectional Granger causality between the delinquencies. The Geweke measures of linear dependence and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger non-causality tests support that mortgage predominantly causes credit card and auto loan delinquencies. Auto loans also cause credit card delinquencies. The impulse response functions confirm this pattern. This scenario aligns with a sequence where debtors consider rational first to default on credit cards, second on auto loans and only on mortgages in the last instance. Indeed, credit card delinquencies Granger-cause delinquencies in other debts when it occurs.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to focus on the temporal pattern of delinquency rates for all the US states, using panel data. Furthermore, the results call for policymakers to design regulations to break the transmission channel from debt delinquencies.
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This article investigates whether herding behavior is present in stock returns of business groups during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using series of prices and daily traded volume of the companies that make up the General Index of Stock Prices of the Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange (S & P/CLIGPA) from January 1, 2010 to October 9, 2020 the results show herding behavior during COVID-19. Nevertheless, the herding behavior is weaker in business group firms compared to companies which are not affiliated to business groups. Then, when analyzing how herding behavior evolves in business groups during the presence of COVID-19, it is found that herding behavior changes to reverse herding behavior during May 2020 onwards. When inquiring about this point, it is found that herding behavior in business groups is lower under increasing uncertainty (number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 increases).Alternate :Este artículo investiga si la conducta de manada está presente en los rendimientos de las acciones de los grupos empresariales durante la pandemia COVID-19. Utilizando series de precios y volumen diario negociado de las empresas que integran el Índice General de Precios de Acciones de la Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago de Chile (S&P/CLIGPA) del 1 de enero de 2010 al 9 de octubre de 2020, los resultados muestran una conducta de manada durante el COVID-19. Sin embargo, esta conducta es más débil en las empresas afiliadas al grupo empresarial, en comparación con las no afiliadas. Es así como encontramos que la conducta de manada para el grupo de interés evoluciona durante el periodo del COVID-19 a tal punto que cambia a lo que se denomina conducta de manada inversa durante mayo de 2020 en adelante. Al analizar este comportamiento nos encontramos con que la conducta de manada en grupos empresariales es menor en presencia de un aumento de la incertidumbre (número de casos de muertes debido al COVID-19).
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El presente artículo tiene como objetivo analizar a los beneficiarios del crédito de desarrollo humano, modalidad asociativa en el marco de la sostenibilidad financiera. Este análisis se realiza mediante el planteamiento de una propuesta de evaluación que consta de una estimación general del entorno social, ambiental y de bienestar, adjuntado a una evaluación financiera. Dicho análisis se ajusta a métricas enfocadas en el endeudamiento, rentabilidad y gestión, donde la ponderación se realiza mediante el estadístico de efectos fijos y aleatorios ajustado a la prueba de Hausman. Asimismo, el contraste de la información general se justifica mediante un modelo logístico multinomial y con un análisis de correspondencia múltiple (ACM), los cuales permiten mostrar la influencia de las generalidades en la inducción de la sostenibilidad. Los resultados visualizados en un antes y durante el COVID-19 demostraron que la pandemia perjudicó a cerca de los 30 beneficiarios, quienes representan el 29,70% de la muestra. Adicional a esto, el ACM mostró que el bono variable, la educación secundaria y el rango etario de 30 a 45 años, son circundantes y coadyuvan a la sostenibilidad financiera.Alternate : The aim of this article is to analyze the beneficiaries of the Human Development Credit in the framework of financial sustainability, this framing will be done through the approach of an evaluation proposal that will consist of a general estimation of the social, environmental and welfare environment, attached to a financial evaluation, this argument will be adjusted to metrics focused on indebtedness, profitability and management, The weighting will be done by means of the fixed and random effects statistic adjusted to Hausman's test, likewise, the contrast of the general information will be argued with a multinomial logistic model and Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA), which will allow concluding the influence of the generalities in the induction of sustainability;the results visualized in a before and during COVID-19 showed that the pandemic harmed about 30 beneficiaries, which represent 29.70% of the sustainable sample, in addition to this, the MCA determines that the Variable Bonus, secondary education, age range (30 to 45 years) are surrounding and contribute to sustainability.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the nature of relationship between ethical leadership and employee voice behavior. Study of employee voice behavior is important, because leaders in organizations make numerous decisions based on employees' work-related inputs which do influence the decision quality and team performance.Design/methodology/approachSurvey data were collected through structured questionnaire from Indian organizations. Data were analysed through statistical techniques such as confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling.FindingsThe findings showed that ethical leadership did impact the employee voice in a positive and significant but moderate manner. The study also found no significant differences in ethical leadership and voice behavior across demographic variables such as gender, age, educational qualification and job level in the Indian context.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is conducted using single cross-sectional research design, and for better causal inferences of the relationship between various variables, future research studies may be conducted with longitudinal research design, multiple data sources and variety of industries with large sample size.Practical implicationsWith erosion of ethical values and corporate scandals, managers need to develop and display ethical leadership as employees emulate their leaders' ethical behavior because ethical leadership, or its perception, relates positively and significantly to employee voice behavior.Originality/valueThere is less study to understand ethical leadership and its influence on voice behavior in developing countries, especially in India. Ethical leadership behavior encourages employees to voice their work-related constructive opinions and concerns for improved decision-making and reduced unethical practices. Also, there is scarcity of research that explores the impact of demographic variables and this study is an effort to understand this gap.
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This study assesses the incidence of the Covid-19 pandemic on poverty levels in 50 African countries by employing the PovcalNet computational tool for poverty monitoring. The empirical evidence is based on: (i) Pre Covid-19 macroeconomic projections of October 2019 and revised macroeconomic projections of April 2020 and (ii) three poverty thresholds, notably, US$1.90, US$3.20, and US$5.50 per day for the extreme, middle and higher poverty lines. The following main findings are established. First, the extreme poverty line of US$1.90 per day has increased by US$0.1 per day while the middle poverty line and the higher line have increased by US0.19$ and US0.32$, respectively. Second, the poverty headcount has increased to 35.85% for the US1.90$ poverty line, 57.55% for the US3.20$ per day poverty line and 76.42% for the higher poverty line (US5.5$ per day). Third, the corresponding additional percentage points in poverty headcount ratio are: (i) an increase of 2.09% for the poverty thresholds of US1.90$ per day and US3.2$ per day, corresponding to 28, 140, 345 and 26, 418, 200 people, respectively of the new poor in absolute terms and (ii) a boost of 1.78% for the higher poverty line of US5.5$ per day, corresponding to 19, 062, 643 of the new poor. Fourth, country-specific tendencies are also provided for more targeted policy implications.
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PurposeEven though Bitcoin has been often labelled as a safe haven asset class in the literature, the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the diversifying opportunities offered by Bitcoin in relation to other assets needs to be investigated. This paper aims to investigate how the EPU affects diversification of commodity, conventional, Islamic and sustainable equity returns in relation to its impact on Bitcoin returns.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use advanced time-series econometrics, namely, multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-dynamic conditional correlation and continuous wavelet transformation, for the analysis of the daily returns for the aforementioned assets between 01 August 2011 and 01 September 2019.FindingsFirst, the authors found a strong evidence of Bitcoin's mean reverting trend in the long run while its volatility has decreased significantly since 2013. After separating the EPU into two regimes (high and low), diversification opportunities with Bitcoin seems to disappear in a high EPU period, while the hedging opportunity tends to prevail in a low EPU period for all classes of assets. Importantly, the findings indicate that Bitcoin offers short-term diversification for sustainable and Islamic equity as well as energy stocks during a low uncertainty period. Consequently, in relation to the policy uncertainty, Bitcoin provides similar hedging opportunities than commodities like Gold and Silver. Overall, the study shows that EPU is remarkably important in explaining the average portfolio returns of Bitcoin, suggesting that this indicator can be perceived as a decent explanatory factor for portfolio diversification.Originality/valueThe study significantly extends the empirical literature of Bitcoin's portfolio diversification by taking EPU into consideration. To the best of authors' knowledge, this is one of the few studies to investigate the asymmetric effects of US EPU on Bitcoin's hedging capabilities by taking into account major conventional equity, sustainable equity, Islamic equity, gold, silver and oil.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility spillover and lead-lag relationship between the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) and the major agricultural future markets before and during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak.Design/methodology/approachThe methods used were the vector autoregression-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity method, the Wald test and wavelet transform method.FindingsThe findings indicate that prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, there was a two-way volatility spillover impact between the majority of the sample markets. In comparison, volatility transmission between the VIX index and the agricultural future market was significantly lower following the COVID-19 outbreak, the authors observed greater coherence at higher frequencies than at lower frequencies, implying that the interdependence between the two VIX indices and the agricultural future market was stronger over a longer time-frequency domain and the VIX's signalling effect on various agricultural future prices after the COVID-19 outbreak was significantly lower.Originality/valueThe authors conducted the first comprehensive investigation of the VIX's correlation with major agricultural futures, especially during COVID-19. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the risk transmission mechanism between the VIX and major agricultural commodities futures contracts. And our findings have significant implications for investors and portfolio managers, as well as for policymakers who are concerned about the price of agricultural futures.
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À partir de données recueillies auprès de 18 directeurs, présidents et managers de l'ESS, entre les deux périodes de confinement de la covid 19, cette recherche étudie les choix stratégiques, managériaux, économiques et de gouvernance des entreprises de l'ESS pour mieux comprendre leurs capacités de résilience organisationnelle. En s'appuyant sur les travaux d'Hamel et Välikangas (2003), il s'agit de savoir si cette crise sanitaire annonce une mutation du secteur de l'ESS en interne comme en externe.Alternate :Based on data collected from 18 directors, presidents and managers of the non-profit organisations (NPOs), between the two periods of lockdown due to the covid 19 health crisis, this research proposes to study the strategic, managerial, economic and governance of NPOs to better understand their organizational resilience capacities. Based on the work of Hamel and Välikangas (2003), the question is whether this health crisis heralds a change in the non-profit sector internally and externally.
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PurposeThis paper aims to examine the hedge, diversifier and safe haven properties of the global listed infrastructure sector and subsector indices against two traditional asset classes, stocks and bonds, and four alternative asset classes, including commodities, real estate, private equity and hedge funds during extreme negative stock market movements.Design/methodology/approachUsing dynamic conditional correlation and quantile regression, the authors analyze a data set of 12 indices comprising listed infrastructure and traditional asset classes from 2010 to 2019.FindingsOverall, the findings indicate that listed infrastructure acts as an effective diversifier but not as a strong safe haven or hedge when considered in a multiasset context. With minor exceptions, listed infrastructure cannot be concluded as a safe haven against other asset classes under investigation.Practical implicationsThe present study has implications for institutional investors looking to incorporate infrastructure in their multiasset portfolios for increased portfolio diversification benefits.Originality/valueDespite the increased influence of infrastructure as an asset class, to the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the hedge, safe haven and diversifying properties of infrastructure in a multi-asset context.